All posts by goforex

What you need to know before the FOMC meeting

On June 17th the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, will announce its latest decision on interest rates. Earlier this year, some in the market had expected the Fed to hike in June, however, market expectations have shifted back, and the first rate hike is now expected in December.

gbpusd weekly

Although the Fed may not make any changes at this meeting, the market will be extremely interested in what Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen has to say. Below are three things we are watching out for:

  • The Fed may hint at the potential timing for the first rate hike. If they sound dovish then the market could push back expectations to the first quarter of 2016, if they sound hawkish then a September rate rise could come back into focus.
  • Is the Fed still willing to hike rates even though Q1 GDP fell into negative territory and inflation pressure remains weak?
  • Does the Fed think that the market is being too cautious in only expecting 100 basis points of increases, approx. four interest rate hikes, over the next 18 months?

This information could have a major impact on the financial markets. For 6 years interest rates in US have been at 0%, one rate hike, even if it is small, could weaken risk sentiment as the market tries to adjust to a new normal where interest rates are expected to be higher in the future.

The Fed and risk sentiment:

Traditionally, when interest rates rise this causes the dollar to rise, Treasury yields to rise, and stocks to sell off, so if the Fed hints at a timetable for interest rate increases at this meeting then expect market volatility to rise. Below we take a look at the potential impact on gold and oil.

Gold: the yellow metal has had a tough 2015 so far, and is fast approaching the base of its recent range at $1,170. If the Federal Reserve reveals its rate-hiking strategy at this meeting then we may see gold break below key support at $1,150, then $1,132 – the low from July 2014. Typically when interest rates rise in the US this pushes up the dollar, since gold is priced in dollars this can weigh on the price of the precious metal. Thus, the second half of 2015 may be a struggle for gold bulls.

Oil: commodities tend to fall when the dollar rises, so if the Fed sounds hawkish at its June meeting this could hurt the oil price. After last year’s dramatic fall in the oil price, it has been trading in a fairly tight range in recent months. Brent crude has traded between $50 and $60 per barrel since April. If the Fed hints that a September rate hike is on the cards, then we could see oil gains capped for the next few months, with $60 a significant level of resistance. On the downside, the low of the last 12 months at $45.19 for Brent, may act as solid support.

Conclusion:

Although the Fed is not expected to actually hike rates at this meeting, the market will be analysing every word spoken by Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen in case she hints at a timetable for raising rates. We expect this meeting to generate market volatility, and due to the commodity market’s sensitivity to changes in value of the US dollar, expect a strong dollar to weigh heavily on the price of gold and oil in the coming weeks.

By: City Index analysts

How To Unlock Your Trading Success

Forex trading is quite lucrative especially if you know how to unlock your trading success. There are several tips or coaching features that can make it easier for you to realize greater profits and get better returns. The best forex traders hone their skills by practicing, taking note of a few essential tips and exercising discipline. The following tips should help you make not only make smarter decisions but also more profitable trades.

learn_forex

Define your goals

This is one of the most essential steps to being a successful trader. The trick is to define your goals and choose a trading style that is compatible with those goals. You have to be sure that the method of trading you choose is capable of achieving those goals. Each trading style requires a different approach and has a different risk profile. Consequently, you require a different approach and attitude to successfully trade.

Choose the right broker

It is important that you choose a broker who is not only reliable but also offers a forex platform that allows you to do the analysis you require. One such platform is www.usgfx.com which has many quality features and benefits. You may have to spend time comparing different brokers and researching the differences between them. Knowing and understanding each broker’s policies and how he or he goes about the market can be very helpful. Choose a methodology and be consistent

The forex market is very dynamic and you want to choose a methodology that is adaptive. Before entering any market as a trader, you should have an idea of how you will make decisions and execute trades. Whether you choose to use fundamental analysis and or technical analysis, remember to be consistent.

Focus on your trades and learn to love small losses

Once you have funded your account for trading purposes, the most important point to note is that your money is at risk. This means that you should not consider such money for payment of bills or living expenses. Consider the trading money as spent once it is over. Having the same attitude toward trading will also psychologically prepare you to accept small losses. This is a crucial factor to risk management. By so doing, you will be a more successful trader.

You also want to leverage your trades to a small percentage of your total funds. Never let any trade lose more than what you are willing to lose from your total investment. The main idea is to minimize risk until you are more knowledgeable and willing to risk more.

Keep a printed record

Keeping a printed record is one of the best tools a trader can use to learn. It entails printing out a chart and listing all the reasons for the trade, including the reasons that inform your decisions. You can also make any relevant comments and file the records so you can use them for reference purposes.

A Better FX Broker

At GoForex we are always on the lookout for brokers. New and old. And recently, a favorite of many, has come to our attention again. One of the great things about them is the fact that they are always running great ad campaigns, with nice extras for when you decide to open a new account with them.

The broker I want to draw your attention to is IronFX. We have collected a great number of positive user reviews about them and personally we are really satisfied using them.

And their current promotion is literally out of this world! Because you can win A TRIP TO SPACE! How awesome is that!? And that is not all, because if you win you get to be the first trader to trade from space!

It doesn’t come for nothing of course, so you will have to compete in a trading competition organized by Iron FX. Where you will be competing with other traders and test your and their luck. But all you have to do is sign up and open a trading account with them. It’s that easy. But that is not all… Traders will compete for the ultimate prize of a phenomenal experience on a suborbital spaceflight, worth $250,000 or choose $100,000 in cash! So you don’t have to go, if you are scare of heights. One hundred runners-up will also receive between $100 and $5,000 cash prize! Does that sound good, or what?

You can click here to sign up for the competition.

Good luck! And safe trading.

How To Increase Your Wealth With Prime Trade

If you are in need of an excellent broker, but feel confused and even a bit apprehensive about putting your trust in one, then you need to put your trust in www.primetrade.com.tr.

Prime Trade is a new way to invest. It’s old fashioned in that the goal is to increase your wealth, but it’s new in its approach because you are getting to see everything online plus be in constant touch with your money. You also maintain contact with your excellent broker.

primetrade

And by the way, that excellent broker is you.

How to Join

It takes about five minutes to join. That’s it. The process proves completely hassle free and even better…it’s actually free. That’s right, there’s no cost to join.

The site is available in Turkish and English. Just choose what you want and get ready to trade.

Trading Hours

Most instruments trading occurs on a 24 hour clock with no interruption. This make trading ideal for people who work on tight schedules and can’t always interact with a broker.

This means that from the opening of the market on Sunday, 21:00 (9:00pm) GMT until the closing of the market on Friday, 20:00 GMT (8:00 pm), you can trade without being bothered by other concerns.

Exceptions to this include public holidays, seasonal time variances, and unusual global events that lead to dramatic liquidity events. There are also some instruments that command their own trading schedule, so you should check the website for further information.

Reasons for Not Using a Broker

A broker costs a tremendous amount of money, so the most savvy traders learn to be their own brokers.

After all, you know what matters the most to you and how far you can really push it with your trades. You don’t need a broker to tell you to invest when you really shouldn’t. You don’t need a broker to tell you to hold back when you really need to push forward. It’s your money, after all. No one knows it better than you.

Of course, paying a broker a hefty commission turns out to be a great thing in some cases. But in general, most people who pay attention to the market can make their own trades, especially with all the information that exists online.

All it takes is a dedication to research, watching the clocks, and being able to go with your gut. The best place to put all this to use is onwww.primetrade.com.tr. Our site even offers a helpful Economic Calendar where you will gain invaluable information about your trades.

You don’t need to pay a broker for that when it’s there for you to use, free.

Reviews

If you want a great review of Primetrade, you can find more than just a great review. You can find many. All you need to do is search online with our name and see what pops up.

In fact, we want you to do this so you can see how satisfied our clients are with what we provide.

Ready to Go

If you are serious about making the market work to your advantage, check out Pimetrade today.

Silver declines due to strengthening of the greenback; foreseeing a potential comeback

Silver prices have weakened on the general market as the U.S. dollar continues its upward scale. Despite data that shows the U.S. index is showing signs of a multi-year bullish pattern, experts are divided on the issue of the uptrend. Despite the economic improvements in the U.S., many analysts agree that America’s reserve currency lacks the catalysts to sustain its strength. The looming risks to the U.S.’ road to recovery such as the peak oil issue can result in this recent uptrend stalling, giving precious metals like gold and silver time to recover.


Silver technical analysis

Silver traders seem to be on alert as the precious white metal nears resistance at 21.10. According to the candlesticks chart below, it appears that there would be enough support for the silver market’s reversal, with support at 20.80. At this point, investors should be looking at buying opportunities when silver’s value drops to the $20 price mark.

May – August is silver’s weakest months, so it’s best to buy the precious white metal during this period. Investors may visit BullionVault’s live price chart to see the price today, as well as silver’s price fluctuations during May and August in previous years. In 2005, for example, silver was at around $7 per ounce at the start of May, and was at $7.29 per ounce by the end of August. However, at the beginning of September, silver picked up and started at around $7.60 per ounce and ended the year at around $9.08 per ounce.

GBPCHF 60 minute – Double Tap

By Ben from Coghlan Capital.com

I wanted to take a quick look at this pair to give an example of how the methodology that we employ could be used by a trader to take a high probability, low risk long on a 60 minute timeframe.

At the heart of the analysis is early recognition and definition of the all-important path of price of a vehicle. We look for evidence of a change of trend across all timeframes and in this case both the Daily and the 240 minute were showing price finding potential areas of support and the possibility of a leg to the upside. Such a move will obviously show on a 60 minute chart before it shows on a 240 minute one or on a Daily. Given this, we started to look for pivots for our pitchfork in order to correctly show the possible line of ascent of the pair.

GBPCHF-60-chart1

Chart 1 shows the very obvious A, B and C pivots and the pitchfork we are using is a variation known as a Schiff (or unmodified Schiff). Note that the A is at the low of the spike in early June – it is pure coincidence that the origin of the fork appears to be at the high of it…… The Schiff is drawn by moving the point of origin 50% of the distance from the A to the B in price but not in time. It is a move along the vertical axis only.

Having drawn the fork, we need to validate it ie to establish whether price is indeed moving in the same angle as the lines we have superimposed on it. We do this by looking for price action along the lines of the fork. This is not necessarily along the Upper or Lower Parallel, the Median Line or the Quartiles, we are looking for activity in the angle of the fork.

On this occasion there is action along the existing lines – there is resistance along the upper Quartile as shown in the green circles and there is both support and resistance along the Median Line in the series of red circles. We can be pretty certain that we have successfully defined the angle of ascent or the path of price by means of the pitchfork that we have drawn.

Note how support in the third red circle turns into resistance in the fourth – as on the horizontal when support becomes resistance we view this as a portend of bearish behaviour. Indeed price did fall from the Median Line resistance, finding a few bars of support at the lower Quartile before arriving at the Lower Parallel.

Note that at this point, in the area of the first red arrow, that we did not know whether or not we would find support at this line. It had not been tested before but the methodology raises the likelihood of this being a line of support and it is certainly an area that we would be watching closely. Because of this uncertainty we would not just “buy the line” until support had been proven and until we had a prior low beneath which to place our stop. The fact that price bounced some forty points from this first touch before returning to test the line again was what we would be looking for.

The second red arrow shows price back at the Lower Parallel for two bars – a long taken here at 1.5213 could have been protected by a stop beneath the low of the bar at the first red arrow at 1.5210. Our target would initially be the Quartile at 1.5277 (this was prior support and would be a likely place to encounter resistance) easily encompassing most risk/reward criteria.

What in fact happened was that price spiked straight through the Quartile and most traders would be following this action and probably allowing their trades to run. As I write this we have pushed higher to the blue dotted Sliding Parallel at 1.5325 and I will continue to monitor this potential line of resistance to see if price turns back from here or whether it continues higher.

I hope I have shown that the early recognition and mapping of the path of price by means of a pitchfork will allow traders to look for high probability areas of support and resistance and enable them to take low risk trades in the vehicle of their choice.

The Cross Pair Analysis service looks to cover a dozen+ non-US Dollar pairs on a daily basis, looking at context via Weekly and Daily charts and in detail via 240, 60 and, sometimes, 20 minute ones.

If you would like to find out more about our analysis or services please follow this link:
https://www.coghlancapital.com/signup

The following link takes you to a recording of the webinar dated July 9th :
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/9300

GBPAUD 240 minute – More Detail

Following on from yesterday’s webinar in which I commented on this pair I have received a number of emails asking me to look at it in more detail. The methodology that we use seeks at an early stage to recognise and define the path of price of a vehicle. Using pitchforks allows us to monitor the strengthening and weakening of trend along the line of ascent or descent.

In this instance having identified A, B and C pivots I drew the Schiff (or unmodified Schiff) pitchfork shown in Chart 1. This is a variant which moves the origin of the pitchfork 50% of the distance from Pivot A to Pivot B in terms of price but not in terms of time. Having drawn the pitchfork we need to validate it, by which I mean that we have to ensure that price action is occurring along the angle of the fork. The first, and very definite, indication of this is shown in the red circle as price exactly touched and then rejected away from the Upper Parallel as shown in the red circle.

gbpaud-240-chart1

Price fell from there beneath the Lower Parallel and found support along the dotted Sliding Parallel. During the webinar I tried to stress that it was not the lines of the fork itself that were important but the angle of ascent or descent that they followed. We do not immediately discard the fork just because price moved below the Lower Parallel – we would still be pretty confident from the Upper Parallel touch that we were defining the angle of ascent so would continue to look for further confirmation by means of continued support or resistance in the line of the fork. I focused in on the Sliding Parallel support, highlighting the arrowed bar, which showed a very strong move up and through the Lower Parallel, closing very close to its highs. In a counterintuitive way, the fact that it took such a strong bar to re-enter the fork does indeed further validate it.

In the webinar I noted how price moved higher to find resistance along the Median Line of the fork and how support stepped up to a line along the Quartile as shown in the series of red circles. I pointed out how a long trade could have been taken from this Quartile support, with a stop of as little as three points to place it below prior lows, and a target of the Median Line some 130 points higher. From the last in the series of red circles price move all the way to the puce highlighted Sliding Parallel – from 1.8050 to 1.8374.

Price has retraced somewhat form that level and we are currently looking to see continued support along the Median Line in the green circles. We have watched support step up from the Sliding Parallel beneath the Lower Parallel, to the Quartile and now potentially to the Median Line. All these levels have been in the line of the fork and we will look to continue to define the moves in this vehicle by means of this pitchfork.

I hope that I have been able to give more of an idea of the way that we use pitchforks to track vehicles by means of strengthening and weakening of trend along paths that we have identified. The analysis allows us to anticipate or predict areas of support and resistance with great accuracy and to use these to take high probability, low risk trades.

The following link takes you to a recording of the webinar dated July 9th :
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/9300

The Cross Pair Analysis service looks  to cover a dozen+ non-US Dollar pairs on a daily basis, looking at context via Weekly and Daily charts and in detail via 240, 60 and, sometimes, 20 minute ones.

If you would like to find out more about our analysis or services please follow this link:
https://www.coghlancapital.com/signup

CADCHF 240 and 60 minutes – An Update

I wanted to have another look at this pair which I first presented here in early May. The methodology that we use seeks to identify the path of price at an early stage and then to delineate or define it by means of a pitchfork. It is not the pitchfork itself that is important but the angle ascent or descent that it follows. By matching price to this angle we can then monitor the strengthening or weakening of trend as it progresses.

cadchf-2-240-chart1

We last looked at this pair in the area of the puce circle in Chart 1. We had been following as price rose from the puce Sliding Parallel following the series of touches in the green circles and had noted the constant line of resistance as shown by the higher puce Sliding Parallel. The validation given by the price action along these lines was sufficient for us to continue to follow it. Note how price moved strongly higher from the last green circle running into resistance at the higher puce Sliding Parallel and then falling back to find support along the grey horizontal.

Although we spend the majority of our analysis looking at movements in the angle of our pitchfork we are not immune to what happens along the horizontal. Here the fact that resistance later became support was noticed and deemed to be bullish. From this support price moved higher again before running into resistance once more along the same puce Sliding Parallel. Note how we are following support stepping up in the angle of the fork – from the line of green circles, to the arrowed blue Sliding Parallel beneath the Median Line and now to a higher arrowed Sliding Parallel shown in green. It is normal to expect resistance to be put under pressure when we see support stepping up and members of the Cross Pair Analysis service have been aware of this and watching these moves unfold.

We are looking to see if there is enough upside pressure to push through the puce Sliding Parallel that has acted as resistance since early April. It is less the breach of this line itself that is important but more where we find support on any retracement. If, for example, price pushed above the line and came back to test it from above and found support along it that would be a bullish indicator and would have us looking to challenge the higher line of the Upper Parallel that had been resistance once before.

cadchf-2-60-chart2

One feature of the Cross Pair Analysis is that we look at vehicles across various timeframes. Chart 2 shows the same pair on a 60 minute basis and Chart 3 shows the same vehicle in more detail. Note how once more we use a distinct A, B and C to draw our pitchfork – this time it is a variant known as a Schiff or Unmodified Schiff. Here the origin of the fork is moved 50% in price from the A pivot to the B pivot.

Chat 3 shows the validation that we found on this fork – the series of red circles denoting the activity that we saw along the Median Line of the fork and which told us that we had correctly defined the path of price. Note how we use the same techniques to mark a strengthening of trend along the path of price. Resistance in mid-June along the quartile of the fork moved higher to the Sliding Parallel just under the Upper Parallel and support along the Median Line also moved up to the Sliding Parallel denoted by the up facing red arrows. (Note incidentally that when this puce Sliding Parallel support briefly breached that support was found along the Median Line once more…)

cadchf-2-60-chart3

In the last day or so the puce Sliding Parallel resistance has been breached to the upside and we have seen price come back and start to establish support along this same line. We potentially have a bullish higher channel forming with the puce Sliding Parallel as new support and a higher green Sliding Parallel as resistance. We will continue to monitor this chart and use the shorter timeframe as a “canary in the ine” for our longer timeframe 240 minute chart.

The Cross Pair Analysis service looks  to cover a dozen non-US Dollar pairs on a daily basis, looking at context via Weekly and Daily charts and in detail via 240, 60 and, sometimes, 20 minute ones.

I recently hosted a webinar looking at the Cross Pairs – it is available to watch here:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/8759

I will be hosting another free webinar on Wednesday 9th July – registration is available at this link:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/9207

If you would like to find out more about our analysis or services please follow this link:
https://www.coghlancapital.com/signup

EURAUD 60 minute – Starting to Trend

Median Line Analysis using pitchforks seeks to identify and define trend at an early stage so that analysts and traders can then follow the strengthening and weakening of price over time. By determining the path of price we are able to anticipate likely areas of support and resistance with great accuracy.

Chart 1:

euraud-60-chart1

In this instance we are following the EURAUD on a 60 minute timeframe and looking at it in the light of the context that our larger charts were giving us. In terms of the bigger picture we were in an area of potential support so honed in on this 60 minute timeframe in order to look for evidence of a change of behaviour.

We were watching the resistance provided by the lines of the red fork. Note that there are two lines marked by a series of red circles – we followed as the resistance provided by the lower of these lines turned into support and then again as the same happened along the higher of the two lines. Price was effectively “stepping up” in the line of the fork – a bullish sign as resistance turned in to support. The process continued along the dashed red quartile as shown by the blue circles eventually moving through the highest line of resistance in the red fork.

Given this change of behaviour we looked to see if we could draw a pitchfork to define the new move. Using the distinct A, B and C pivots we looked to see if the new blue fork could be validated by the action along its angles. The first indication that it was working came from the touches along the handle, indicating that the angle of ascent was indeed worth following. Note also the resistance along the puce Sliding Parallel –  remember that it is not the lines of the pitchfork itself that are important, rather it is the angle in which it is drawn.

Price retraced from this anticipated resistance and moved all the way back t the Lower Parallel of the fork. The action at the first red arrow further validates the fork – note how price spiked to support and then reversed. Even though we saw this line violated on the next approach we were still watching to see the effect of the Lower Parallel when price reached it again at the second red arrow. Three solid bars finding support along this line of previous activity have led to a move this morning from 1.4462 to a high so far of 1.4538 – not a huge move but one that could have been taken with a tight low-risk stop.

I will continue to monitor the movement of price within this pitchfork, looking to follow the strengthening and weakening of trend. If price pushes to a higher resistance in the angle of the fork and support steps up as well, then we will be looking for higher prices. If however we find a lowered resistance then it is likely our support will be under pressure and we may expect lower prices in the future.

The Cross Pair Analysis service uses Median Line Analysis to cover a dozen non-US Dollar pairs on a daily basis, looking at context via Weekly and Daily charts and in detail via 240, 60 and, sometimes, 20 minute ones.

I recently hosted a webinar looking at the Cross Pairs – it is available to watch at this link:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/8759

If you would like to find out more about our analysis or services please follow this link:
https://www.coghlancapital.com/signup

AUDNOK Daily – Not Mainstream

The Cross Pair Analysis service covers a large number of non-US Dollar vehicles on an ongoing basis. One of the more unusual ones in our sights is the AUDNOK – which over the years has shown a tendency to trend well for long periods. Chart 1 shows the recent Daily moves in the pair without any annotation – it looks as though price is moving in a fairly horizontal range but I think most would accept that this would be somewhat difficult to trade.

Chart 1

audnok-daily-chart1

By establishing a path of price and monitoring the strengthening and weakening of trend, Median Line Analysis allows traders to analyse and profit from a vehicle using high probability and low risk entries.

Chart 2 shows the same AUDNOK Daily but with a pitchfork added. I have used the significant late July low as my A pivot and the next significant high and low as my B and C. All of a sudden the chart “comes to life” and numerous supports and resistances become apparent. Our brains are constantly looking for patterns in what we see around us and drawing a pitchfork gives context and makes sense of the movements of price.

Chart 2

audnok-daily-chart2

In order to determine that we have indeed found the correct path of price we need to see activity along the angle of the pitchfork that we have drawn. This does not have to be along the main lines of the fork itself but it does have to be in the angle of ascent (or descent in the case of a downfork). Here there are a series of resistances along the arrowed Sliding Parallel just under the Median Line of the fork. These would alert us to the probability that we were correctly defining the path of price – we would watch the continuing action along the lines of the fork, building a picture of likely areas of support and resistance. Further confirmation would come from the last two red arrows in the line of the Quartile and this is so even though price had dipped beneath the Lower Parallel of the fork in the area of the puce circle. Remember it is the angle defined by the fork not the fork itself which is important to the methodology.

The dip to the puce circle in early March led us to draw a Sliding Parallel – again shown here in puce – from that point as a potential line of support. When price revisited that line a couple of months later we were watching it as a potential area of support. as is apparent form the puce arrows the anticipated support held and also gave traders the opportunity to take a long position with the benefit of a tight stop – for example by going long from 5.4877 at the second arrow with a stop beneath 5.4841at the first arrow.

As price moved away from this line of support a trader would probably move his or her stop to breakeven in order to use “the market’s money” in the trade. The two green circles show a bullish context as potential resistance along the underside of the Lower Parallel turns into support. As on the horizontal, when resistance becomes support we look for price to move higher. This is precisely what has happened with it now reaching an area of anticipated resistance in the larger green circle at 5.7890. Not only is this horizontal resistance as shown by the green line but also resistance in the line of the fork along the Quartile. The last two red arrows show that this was the previous line of resistance in the fork and, if the strength of trend was the same, we would anticipate that this would again be the line of resistance to watch.

Having moved from anticipated support to anticipated resistance I hope that I have shown how the methodology can be of use in analysing and profiting from the moves in a chart. I will continue to monitor the way trend is strengthening and weakening in the angle of the pitchfork that I have drawn.

The Cross Pair Analysis service uses Median Line Analysis to cover a dozen non-US Dollar pairs on a daily basis, looking at context via Weekly and Daily charts and in detail via 240, 60 and, sometimes, 20 minute ones.

I recently hosted a webinar looking at the Cross Pairs – it is available to watch at this link:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/8759

If you would like to find out more about our analysis or services please follow this link:
https://www.coghlancapital.com/signup